Archive for the ‘Discutii’ Category
De ce valoreaza RCS-RDS spre 2 miliarde euro
miercuri, februarie 12th, 2014Later update: Precizare de la Moise Guran:
eu n-am spus asa si nici n-am stiut ca un redactor care ma suna va face un articol pornind de la raspunsul meu. m-a intrebat ce parere am de intrarea digi 24 in must carry si am spus ca am o parere buna. apoi intrebat de profitabilitatea digi 24 am spys ca nu se pune problema, atata timp cat nu are venituri si, am continuat, ca si digiworld si digisport a fost inventat ca sa poata face un pachet mai bun la un eventual exit. pe cati bani? nu stiu, zic, dar la ce credite are rcs sub 1 mld de euro nu ar fi profitabil sa-l dea.
Context:
Din cauza imprumuturilor, patronul RCS&RDS, Zoltan Teszari, cauta un cumparator pentru intregul sau business, pentru care cere un pret de peste 1 miliard de euro, potrivit lui Moise Guran.
“RCS&RDS este ok ca business, dar daca te imprumuti si iar te imprumuti va trebui sa faci un exit”, considera Moise Guran.
De aici
Da, e posibil ca Teszari si restul actionarilor sa vanda cu 1 miliard daca acest miliard e cash out pentru ei si cumparatorul isi asuma datoriile care sunt de +800 milioane euro. Pentru ca valoarea RCS-RDS este mai mare de 1 miliard euro, este spre 2 miliarde euro.
De ce?
Trecand peste clasicele capitalizare pe bursa, multiplu de venituri/ebitda, valoarea unei companii mai e data si de tranzactiile similare facute in domeniu, in piete din regiune. In cazul nostru, ultima tranzactie „prin zona” a fost cumpararea de catre KKR – atentie, fond de investitii, deci ei au cumparat ca sa creasca si sa vanda unui strategic in 3-5 ani – a celui mai mare cablist din Serbia, SBB.
Cand? Octombrie anul trecut.
Cati clienti are SBB? 1.5 milioane, Serbia + alte tari din fosta Yugoslavie.
Care a fost suma platita? 1 miliard euro.
Acum, luati RCS-RDS, luati pietele pe care activeaza, luati clientii pe fiecare piata si faceti regula de trei simpla cu valoarea tranzactie din Serbia si veti afla valoarea RCS-RDS. De fapt luati doar piata din .ro unde au +3 milioane clienti si sunt lideri de piata, ignorati Ungaria si Cehia, analizati doar pe .ro. Cat va da? :)
Doua despre munca
miercuri, ianuarie 22nd, 20141. Success at Work, Failure at Home
One of the stated values at IronPort was “work/life balance,” but I clearly wasn’t living it. I was rarely home. And when I was home, well, let’s just say I wasn’t particularly helpful or cheery. My perspective at the time was: I’m killing myself at work, so when I get home, I just want to kick back with a cocktail and watch some TV. All I do is talk to people all day long and so at home, I’d really prefer not to talk much, just relax.
If the benefits of working fewer hours are this clear, why has it been so hard for businesses to embrace the idea? Simple economics certainly plays a role: in some cases, such as law firms that bill by the hour, the system can reward you for working longer, not smarter. And even if a person pulling all-nighters is less productive than a well-rested substitute would be, it’s still cheaper to pay one person to work a hundred hours a week than two people to work fifty hours apiece. (In the case of medicine, residents work long hours not just because it’s good training but also because they’re a cheap source of labor.) On top of this, the productivity of most knowledge workers is much harder to quantify than that of, say, an assembly-line worker.
Intrebarea finalului de an
vineri, decembrie 13th, 2013Cand va intra Amazon in .ro? Pareri? :)
„Is building massive scale the only strategy?”
miercuri, noiembrie 13th, 20131.
“I think I can begin to discern the vague outlines of how digital publishing might eventually be able to deliver the kind of scale and impact that brand advertisers demand from TV and glossy magazines. I don’t know who the winner is going to be. But I do think that Blodget is right about one thing: whoever the winner is, they will have to have some very deep pockets. Winning this game won’t come cheap.”
2.
So massive scale is necessary because advertisers — especially those accustomed to TV — apparently require it (which is why Twitter has made the changes it has as well). In effect, we are rebuilding the mass media of the old days because advertisers can’t think of any other way to make money other than by accumulating billions of pageviews, and publishers are being dragged along for the ride. In order to play ball, and generate the kind of revenue their backers require, they apparently need to achieve global scale or die trying.
3.
Is this really the future we want for online media? Doesn’t it just mean that we wind up with one or two giant conglomerates whose only business model is based on pageview-driven clickbait content? That’s the model that Business Insider appears to be pursuing — one that involves producing more and more pageviews that bring in less and less revenue. Is this the only possible future? I honestly don’t know.
Pareri?
Probabil cea mai realista analiza despre retragerea lui Ballmer*
marți, august 27th, 2013What really causes a company to fail is disruption. The business model around which all products, customers and priorities are built; the culture, the skills and “DNA” of the company; is vulnerable. This vulnerability is why companies have considerably shorter lifespans than the people who work there. They are one of the most fragile of organisms: high infant mortality, with short, unpredictable lives.
Microsoft ascended because it disrupted an incumbent (or two) and is descending because it’s being disrupted by an entrant (or two). The Innovator’s Dilemma is very clear on the causes of failure: To succeed with a new business model, Microsoft would have had to destroy (by competition) its core business. Doing that would, of course, have gotten Ballmer fired even faster.
Steve Ballmer’s only failing was delivering sustaining growth (from $20 to over $70 billion in sales.) He did exactly what all managers are incentivized to do and avoided all the wasteful cannibalization for which they are punished.
Steve Ballmer will not be remembered as favorably as the man who created Microsoft. But at least he won’t be remembered as the fool who killed it. That epitaph is reserved for his successor.
E diferenta dintre a spune, „da, trebuie sa facem/sa fim in search/mobile” si „da, trebuie sa facem seach/mobile, punem cei mai buni oameni din companie/piata sa se ocupe de asta si le dam toate resursele de care au nevoie chiar daca afectam produsele care acum genereaza profitul”.
Altfel, as spune ca azi Microsoft pare ca se afla intr-o pozitie ceva mai buna decat Apple, dpdv al felului mai echilibrat in care si-a diversificat produsele/sursele de venit/zone de crestere, dar mult in urma Google (Microsoft opereaza pe cateva piete, Business division/Servers/chiar si Windows unde concurenta musca mai greu/deloc/ (sau piata scade mai greu) si intr-un ritm mai lent decat musca Android-ul/Samsung/restul din pietele iPhone/iPad, asta in timp ce Google nu are nici un fel de competitor pe zona de search/advertising si isi imparte mobile-ul/tableta cu Apple/Samsung chiar daca nu castiga direct). Mai pe scurt, daca nici una din companii nu schimba nimic, Microsoft cred ca ar avea parte de o „moarte” mai lenta decat ar putea avea parte Apple.
De aici Steve Ballmer and The Innovator’s Curse
* – probabil cea mai realista citita de mine, pana acum.
Declining Industries vs Growing Jobs
duminică, august 25th, 2013– Employment at newspapers is down about 5% over the past year.
– The number of help-wanted ads for “news analysts, reporters, and correspondents” is up 15% compared to a year ago.
– More people are telling the BLS that they are working as a news analyst, reporter, or correspondent compared to a year ago.
– Roughly half the want-ads for news analysts, reporters and correspondents contain the words ‘digital’, ‘internet’, ‘online’, or ‘mobile’.
Aha, deci se poate
marți, iunie 25th, 2013Two Hollywood studios have quietly begun testing a controversial business model in South Korea after years of failed efforts in the U.S.: renting movies via video on demand while they are still playing in theaters.
The experiments, by Walt Disney Co. Sony Pictures Entertainment, mark the first time major American studios have offered viewers anywhere the option of buying a ticket to see a movie or to rent it at home from a cable, Internet or satellite-television provider. Sony Pictures is owned by Japan’s Sony Corp.
Sony’s „Django Unchained” was available to rent online or via cable just three weeks after premiering in Korean theaters in April. Disney’s animated „Wreck-it Ralph” and „Brave” came five and four weeks, respectively, after launching at cinemas in December and September. In both cases the films were still playing broadly in theaters throughout South Korea, the world’s eighth-largest film market.
De aici
Mi se pare ca am castigat un pariu :)
Doua despre elefanti si una fara
luni, iunie 3rd, 20131. Dan Voiculescu despre Sebastian Ghita, intr-un interviu din Adevarul:
Exist? o rivalitate ?i în cele dou? trusturi de pres? al lui Sebastian Ghi?? ?i al dumneavoastr?. Va afecta USL? Nu, nu cred, cu toat? modestia, c? Sebastian are trust de pres?. Adic? rivalitatea poate fi între doi elefan?i, nu poate fi rivalitatea între un elefant ?i o broasc?. Este percep?ia dumneavoastr?.
2. Dan Tapalaga intr-un comentariu pe hotnews.ro
Elefantul in lupta cu soricelul? Nu. Elefant cu creasta, dinozaur pe cale de disparitie in razboi cu velociraptori tineri si setosi de banii, puterea si influenta speciei muribunde. Din acest razboi al lumilor castigam si noi ceva: aflam cum functioneaza in detaliu mecanismele corupte ale unora. Vom sti cum arata putregaiul celorlalti abia la urmatoarea miscare de placi tectonice. Atata tot.
3. Fara elefanti dar interesant de citit: De ce a început asaltul împotriva lui Voiculescu
Eu constat doar ca RCS-RDS e cam subestimat in toate comentariile desi ei au facut denuntul/de la ei a plecat totul si mai constat ca acest „asalt” analizat la mm asupra lui Voiculescu a pornit in urma unei „erori” grave a directorului Antena Group, posibilul santaj aplicat administratorului RCS-RDS. Fara aceasta „miscare” a omului Intact nu ar fi existat nici un „atac”.
Dosarul pare „beton” (telefoane, inregistrari, amenintari, cererea de a semna un contract de cateva milioane euro, spotul care a rulat cateva zile si care anunta o ancheta jurnalistica in fotbal pe ruta Oradea Bucuresti etc), mai raman intrebarile, cum a ajuns un contract intre doua entitati private, RCS-RDS si firma lui Bogdan Dragomir la Sorin Alexandrescu si daca DNA are sau nu competenta pe acest caz (art 13 din legea de functionare a DNA-ului pare ca raspunde acestei intrebari).
„What a stupid idea”
miercuri, mai 1st, 2013“I want to make an app for browsing catalogs. It’s like a fashion catalog, but you can organize and share outfits,” he said. He pulled out his iPhone and showed me a prototype that barely worked. The UI was decent but clunky; it had side-swiping navigation that only worked every few swipes. He showed me what seemed to be an endless series of women’s dresses. “Nice,” I said. But I had already dismissed the idea. How on Earth would this 20-something guy in Silicon Valley reach his target market of middle aged women? And would they even want such a thing? Did they even own iPhones? I think I asked a series of questions, but I don’t even remember the answers.
“What a stupid idea,” I thought to myself.
As we finished our coffees, I think he sensed my apathy, and we parted ways. But just before I walked away, he asked a question:
“What do you think about the name we’ve been using? It’s called Pinterest.”
The future is extremely hard to see through the lens of the present. It’s very easy to unconsciously dismiss the first versions of something as frivolous or useless. Or as stupid ideas.
De aici
O poveste cu masini, pr, jurnalism si semne de intrebare
luni, februarie 18th, 2013O poveste despre disputa dintre Tesla, producatorul de masini electrice, si New York Times:
1. Tesla vs. The New York Times: Everyone’s A Media Company Now
Even a few years ago, something like this probably would have required finding a rival newspaper — the Wall Street Journal, perhaps — to collaborate on a takedown. Or maybe an expensive full-page ad campaign in the top five papers, which would have looked defensive and seemed less convincing.
But now that every smart company has a regularly updated blog, Elon Musk has 136,000 Twitter followers, etc., brands can speak for themselves very powerfully. And if the tone is right, they don’t even look lame: Tesla actually looks pretty great right now*. The balance of power has shifted.
2.
Corporate PRs everywhere are reading @elonmusk ‘s NYT take down and thinking ‘hmm’
— emily bell (@emilybell) February 14, 2013
3. Tesla, the New York Times and the levelling of the media playing field
In a very real sense, everyone is a media entity of some kind now. That doesn’t mean someone with a few hundred followers on Twitter is the equivalent of the New York Times, but it does mean that a large corporation like Tesla Motors is on a much more level playing field with the newspaper than it would ever have been before. In the past, if Tesla didn’t like a review, it could a) call and complain, b) put out a press release and try to get a competitor interested in a story c) launch an expensive lawsuit (which Musk has also done in the past).
And what about society, or journalism in general — is it better off when this happens? There are two ways of looking at that question too: if you want to make it easier to figure out who is right and who is wrong, the current state of affairs isn’t going to help. The only thing that becomes obvious from the back-and-forth between Tesla and the New York Times is that it’s very difficult, and perhaps even impossible, to tell who is right on specific points. Some political topics are also arguably getting harder to understand rather than easier.
4. Tesla Owners Hit the Road to Prove Long-Distance Can Be Done
A group of Tesla Model S owners, charged up over a recent New York Times column that challenged the reliability of the electric vehicle, hit the road this weekend to replicate the same drive the Times reporter made.